By David Rosen
Top experts and decision-makers recently came to New York to throw light on how the commercial TV business is adapting to the disruptive force called “social television.”
I joined them at three conferences:
- The Social TV Summit focused on how the industry is responding to “out-of-the-box” changes.
- The Future of TV Forum examined the industry’s efforts to keep technological disruptions “inside-the-box.”
- And TV of Tomorrow combined these two approaches.
The vibe of all three events was caught by an industry wag who remarked that the old “www” for “World Wide Web” now means video “whatever, whenever, wherever.”
Here are my observations, plus Takeaways for the factual TV sector.
Disruption Is Accelerating
Broadband is a disruptive technology which is challenging the TV business in three critical ways.
- It represents a new way to distribute programming content through either Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) or Over-the-Top (OTT) methods.
- It combines linear programming with a new, more interactive or social media experience through services like Twitter and Facebook.
- It is spawning the addition of a second and sometimes third interactive device (e.g., computer, smartphone or tablet) as part of the viewing experience.
The Old TV Model Has Problems
The broadband disruption comes at a time when the TV business faces significant structural challenges:
- New TV sets sales have stalled, due to the ongoing recession, the failure of 3D-TV to catch on, and the changing viewing habits of the Under 30 demo.
- Cable TV subscribers, especially younger ones, are either “cord cutting” by giving up their $100 a month cable connection, or just not subscribing in the first place. Instead, many are opting for broadband-only access via an alternative set-top device. Examples include a games player, Roku box, computer or smartphone.
- New “cash registers” are dislodging the traditional roles of cable operators and TV networks for collecting subscriber’s fees and advertising revenues.
- These new “cash registers” include Netflix, Hulu, Amazon and iTunes.
- This development may lead to a more a la carte programming model, which erodes the viability of traditional cable/satellite operators and TV networks.
Online Video Advertising Will Boom
Veteran media forecaster Jack Myers is bullish on how the online social experience will contribute to significant growth in overall TV advertising.
- He estimates that for 2011, social TV advertising and marketing spending were $150-$200 million. His projection for 2020 is $8-$12 billion!
- Online video advertising revenues are projected to grow from an $3+/- billion in 2011 to $30 billion in 2020.
Myers forecasts that in 2020, existing “broadcast and cable networks will capture 70% of this spending.”
- That’s very good news for the wave of young programmers and ad sales teams who signed up to work in the ‘Integrated Content’ departments at established linear channels.
Where Are We Headed?
The industry experts who attended the three conferences shared a general outlook on how the TV industry will evolve.
My five Takeaways are intended to capture this consensus and at the same time help documentary and other media makers to map their paths forward:
1. Social television offers four benefits, and they all need to be orchestrated by content creators and distributors:
- Socially-shared exchanges among viewers.
- Engaging games and voting schemes.
- Value-added information.
- Interactive engagements.
2. The multi-screen TV experience is growing in popularity.
- The challenge is how to effectively utilize the “other screens” to enhance the overall viewing experience.
- As one speaker cleverly put it “Your dual screens shouldn’t duel!”
- Each screen offers a different experience: the big “wall monitor” is for viewing while the smaller smartphone in your hand or tablet in your lap are for engagement.
- Content developers need to engage viewers on each screen.
3. The key to social television is “engagement.”
- “Engagement” is a buzzword that captures the effort by TV producers, programmers and sales departments to overcome the disruptive effects of Twitter, Facebook and other social networking tools, and instead to harness them to strengthen TV ad sales.
- However, “engagement” is not easy to track. Accurate audience measurement lags behind the new TV viewing practices.
- New ratings standards for social TV are an urgent industry need.
- The good news for social TV pioneers is that research shows that multi-platform viewing increases engagement.
4. A strong “call-to-action” in the storyline of feature-length and shorter-form docs is the best means of engaging viewers in the social TV experience.
- The call to action can help with the sale of the doc or other branded products and services, as well as with contributions (of money, time and talent) to the cause associated with the film.
5. If you think cable budgets are rock bottom, get ready for a new haircut by Social TV.
About the Author
David Rosen is a writer and business-development consultant. He is the author with Peter Hamilton of the indie classic, Off-Hollywood: The Making & Marketing of Independent Films (Grove), originally commissioned by the Sundance Institute and the Independent Feature Project. David can be emailed here. For more about David’s writing and services click here and here.
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Millennium Broadway Hotel, New York City
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The first recipient of our Outstanding Achievement Award for Archive Preservation and Restoration will be presented to Serge Bromberg of Lobster Films, Paris. As well as receiving the Award, Serge will present his highly entertaining Archive Cabaret, including a presentation of George Melies’ 1902 colour classic A Trip to the Moon.
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