U.S. Distribution. More Cord-cutting: What Does it Mean for Programmers?

The cable/satellite program distribution model is mature and under increasing fire from ‘over the top’ delivery options.

Today: U.S. network distribution data for June 2011 versus June 2010:

• Who were the gainers and losers?
• And what does it mean?

U.S. TVHH’s (‘000)

Takeaways

• Many channels are shedding subs
  • Hallmark lost 112,000!
• Dark, cord-cutting forces at work include price resistance, Netflix, and the rejection of cable TV by young trend-setters
  • Leading research firm SNL Kagan dramatically forecasts that 10% of U.S. homes (12.1 million) will cut the cord on their pay-TV subscriptions by the end of 2015
• For the fully-distributed channels at the top of the table, the only way to grow is to eat the enemy. That means out-programming them!
  • History gained a remarkable 369,000 average prime time viewers 1Q11 versus 1Q10
  • And MTV: 400,000!
• It is the Reality category that is leading the charge
  • Reality series predominate amongst the Top shows on U.S. Cable, led by History’s Pawn Stars
  • Fully-distributed channels like TNT and USA are ramping up their non-scripted development teams in search of a home-grown Pawn Stars or Jersey Shore
  • Don’t miss A&E’s Don Robert’s expert presentation at Real Screen 2011. Check out ‘Lesson #8’
• Mature businesses everywhere rely on cost-cutting to sustain their margins, and in the cable TV business that’s good news for non-scripted producers
  • Factual costs less than scripted
  • The broadcast networks are dumping scripted series and hiring Reality specialists
  • That means an expanded commissioning pipeline for non-scripted producers
• The bad news for non-scripted producers is that mature businesses everywhere rely on cost-cutting …
  • Channels are forever trimming production budget line items
  • And pushing the cost of development to producers
• A handful of mid-table Factual channels showed remarkable year-to-year subscriber gains. Swimming against the tide were:
  • Nat Geo Wild (+50%)
  • ID: Investigation Discovery (+30%)
  • History International (+9%)
  • Bio (+9%)

The Data

• Not all channels are reported
• And year-to-year comparisons are lacking for many networks.

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Singapore Workshop
Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Trends & Opportunities in Unscripted Television
Presented by Media Development Authority, Singapore
Workshop leader: Peter Hamilton

Key Questions

• What’s driving the U.S. and international market for Factual Entertainment?
• And how can Singapore producers get some of this work?

Agenda

• What is the scale of the international, especially U.S., factual television industry?
• Who are the leading commissioning networks? And the minor players?
• How big is their audience?
• How much do they spend each year on new commissions?
• What are the categories of spending?

What Do Broadcasters Want?

• What is the demand for individual documentaries and limited series
• What are the filters?
• Docs: HBO, PBS, OWN, ESPN, PBS and others
• Lifestyle channels: Food, Cooking, Travel, Style
• Case Study: ‘The Rise and Rise of the #1 Hit Pawn Stars’

Art of Pitching

• How to develop a strong pitch
• Do’s and Don’ts
• Case studies

Access

• Who gets the work?
• Is the U.S. market open to international partners?
• What are the deal terms?
• And how can Singapore producers establish themselves as U.S. suppliers?

Q&A