History's 'Hatfields' Blasts A+E Several Laps Past Discovery Networks!

That loud sound that I heard during my rounds of Washington DC last week was the deep groan that rose from Discovery’s Silver Spring HQ.

What happened?

History’s 3-part scripted, miniseries Hatfields and McCoys earned audiences unimagined for an ad-supported cable channel:

The New York Times called it a “spectacular success” with a “monster audience” that hit 14.3 million viewers in the finale.
That # includes 6.3 million Adults 25-54 — the key demo that History sells to its advertisers.

Game Over?

Discovery’s neck-to-neck competition with A+E Networks dates back to the ‘Eighties.
But now it’s over!
A+E’s History channel won the silverware and has moved up into a new league.

Several data points help measure the scale of History’s achievement last week:

History’s average prime time viewing audience in 1Q 2012 was 1.6 million versus the Hatfields’ peak of 14.3 million!
The top scripted programs on cable in 2011 (Adults 25-54) were:
Walking Dead (AMC, 3.8 million)
Falling Skies (TNT, 2.5 million)
Sons of Anarchy (FX, 2.5 million)

History is a non-scripted channel:

Pawn Stars was History’s top reality series in 2011, averaging 3 million A25-54.
Hatfields is scripted, showing that History’s programming team can hit towering aces with either arm.

Pulling Away

A+E Networks drew away from Discovery Networks in 2011:

History’s average primetime audience was nearly 50% higher than Discovery’s
History accounted for 2 of Cable’s Top 10 programs (A25-54) in 2011.
They were Pawn Stars (#3) and American Pickers (#6). A&E’s Storage Wars was #7.
Discovery’s unsinkable Deadliest Catch was #8 and Gold Rush Alaska #10.
For the year, History gained 14% in Adults 25-45. A&E gained 5%, while Discovery began its turnaround with a 1% gain, and TLC lost 6%.

Hatfields both cements and expands on these gains. The gap is likely to take years and years to reverse.

A+E’s Success Factors?

Coming to mind are:

A+E’s multi-network lineup of hits provides cross-promotion firepower that Discovery Networks simply can’t match.
A+E has enjoyed a more stable management team than Discovery Networks.
The strongest pitches are coming first to A+E. To counter, Discovery may shift from its work-for-hire model and share backend with preferred producers.
Discovery’s brand and morale has been undermined by the Oprah Winfrey Network debacle.
OWN has absorbed nearly a half billion in losses that would have helped mightily to bolster Discovery Channel’s turnaround, with funding to spare for fully-distributed sister nets like TLC as well as the up-and-coming digi-nets Science, ID and Velocity.

Discovery’s Consolation Prize

Beginning with the launch of Discovery Europe, for which I developed the business plan, Discovery established a far-reaching international operation:

International is on the way to contributing half of parent DCI’s revenues.
No other global initiative by a US channels group comes close.
While Discovery’s visionary board and management were launching channels in territory after territory, A+E International was hamstrung by a divided and US-focused board, and has been working smart to catch up ever since.
If you accept that the US is losing its grip on the world economy, maybe Hatfields is just one set point – although a very important one – in the much bigger global rivalry between A+E Networks and DCI??

Photo: Corridor at MIPTV

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Speaking Engagements

Sunnyside of the Doc
La Rochelle (June 26-29).

3D / Giant Screen panel:

Is there a new model built on (1) new digital screens that are giant- but sub IMAX- size, plus (2) premium commissions by 3D and documentary channels?
Who are the players?
Are those budgets really $10+ million?

China’s huge documentary market: