Factual Production in the Age of the Coronavirus

As New York City moved into Coronavirus shutdown this weekend, I wondered about the effects of the increasingly restrictive response to the epidemic on program production and delivery schedules.

NBA Started It

When the NBA cancelled its season, most of the world’s leading Sports franchises followed.
Next came Late Night Talk shows with their live audiences and large studio crews.
Live music performances, and then production of scripted film and TV series came next.

News

National broadcast and cable News programs are now feeling the pressure.
Field reporters are risking exposure out on their beats.
And then they risk cross-infection as they gather in sizable studio presentation teams.

Moving to Unscripted…

The two key factors that shape the response of the factual television business are:
- Air travel, and
- Limits on the size of gatherings.

Reality

Ensemble Reality shows are cancelling production, both in studio and in the field.
A producer called me today wondering how her ‘fixed rig’ show might proceed.
These operations are often located in drama-filled and crowded locations like hospitals where access will be denied in such a crisis.

History

Among the casualties in the History genre are:

Dramatic recreations with a cast of actors.
Big History ‘events’ involving complex field operations, like submersible dives to the wreck of the Titanic.
Sub-genres that rely on crews who travel to distant locations:
- Examples are Egyptologists heading to Luxor, or Military historians off to Normandy.

Archive

Programs that are based on the archive are highly deliverable.
They may involve a small team of a producer, researcher and editor, and no travel.
Shows that involve re-cutting and refreshing an archive may also enjoy an advantage as buyers seek substitutes for delayed or cancelled programs.
Programs that rely heavily on CGI may also enjoy an advantage

Natural History

In the Nature / Wildlife genre, huge Blue Planet-like series must be dealing with big problems.
- They are likely to involve crews who travel to distant locations.
- And there they often mix with the unprotected populations of poorer countries.
The elderly ratings rockstar David Attenborough is among the most vulnerable demos.
- He will likely be grounded from serving as the embedded host of Blue Chip programs.
- And lesser Wildlife talent will be reluctant to be exposed to virus risk for the foreseeable future.
Seasonality is another factor: many wildlife stories depend on capturing in Spring the key breeding sequences, often in remote sites.
For many species, these shoots will be suddenly off the table.

Wildlife: Singles & Couples

Wildlife programs that are driven by single cinematographer, or by a film-making couple, are more likely to deliver on plan.
Particularly if their projects are conveniently located near their home base.
All the better if they own a deep archive of compelling sequences to fall back on.

LIVE

One-off LIVE Wildlife specials like Yellowstone, Alaska and Serengeti will be unsustainable due to travel restrictions and the extensive crews required in field and studio.
On the other hand, this is a positive moment for LIVE Wildlife shows that rely on fixed camera rigs and small local crews.
Moving beyond Natural History, I can’t see how A+E Networks’ hit PD Live and its spin offs can continue production.
Police departments, field and studio crews, and the mainly minority populations who get hassled, are all experiencing virus restrictions.

Production Ecosystem: On a Tightrope

The major network groups have surgically removed cushion after cushion from the programming ecosystem.
Outside the big, repeating program franchises, well-established producers now commonly work in their basements.
They depend on networks of proven sub-contractors who in turn work out of their garages.
Many lack the financial or operating bandwidth to absorb a default down the production line.
It’s inevitable that the virus itself, or maybe just the distractions of caring for stay-at-home children, will disrupt key links in the chain.
Deadlines will be missed, and quality compromised.
Channels may respond by deferring or refusing payments to producers.
The economic health of the industry is walking the tightrope.

Ratings Up!

Meanwhile, an early report shows a ratings uptick for broadcasters of as much as 7%.
Its likely that HUTS – Homes Using Television – are rising in the absence of other entertainment and social activities.
We’ll watch closely how this translates into revenues for networks, though these are limited because most media buys are locked in.
Dominant streaming services, like Netflix and Disney + with their deep inventories, are likely to get a boost in viewing and subscriptions.
Niche SVOD services may experience a higher churn rate as their shallow inventories will be exposed to consumers who are cutting costs in response to the economic downturn.

Final Word

Our industry, like my adopted city, is remarkably resilient!
Producers, distributors and network programmers will rapidly adjust to the restrictions on their production processes, and to the oncoming recession.
New creative solutions will arise, just as they did after 9/11 and other such shocks.
Advantage will likely fall to the nimble, the flexible, and the deeply-researched.
There will be winners: new ones and repeaters. There always are.

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