Here is a July 4 Weekend treat: a snapshot of the estimated distribution universe of a majority of the US cable channels that schedule unscripted programs.
- The data raises the question: Is there a wave of cord-cutting that is eroding the channels business model?
- See my Takeaways below.
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Cable Network Universe Estimates
A Selection, July 2014
The column headings are:
Channel / July 2013 Universe / July 2014 Universe / +/- ‘000 / +/- %
| FXX (FOX SOCCER) | 51,393 | 73,255 | 21,862 | 42.5% |
| VELOCITY | 52,152 | 58,330 | 6,178 | 11.8% |
| OVATION | 43,527 | 49,328 | 5,801 | 13.3% |
| UP (Gospel Music) | 61,401 | 66,359 | 4,958 | 8.1% |
| Al Jazeera America | 48,161 | 53,104 | 4,943 | 10.3% |
| IFC | 69,499 | 73,109 | 3,610 | 5.2% |
| WE TV | 83,028 | 85,739 | 2,711 | 3.3% |
| COOKING | 60,475 | 62,711 | 2,236 | 3.7% |
| REELZ | 66,616 | 67,722 | 1,106 | 1.7% |
| NAT GEO CHNL | 84,520 | 85,032 | 512 | 0.6% |
| SPORTSMAN | 31,879 | 32,268 | 389 | 1.2% |
| MSNBC | 94,782 | 95,051 | 269 | 0.3% |
| ID | 84,319 | 84,548 | 229 | 0.3% |
| DIY | 58,724 | 58,752 | 28 | 0.0% |
| OXYGEN MEDIA | 78,321 | 78,325 | 4 | 0.0% |
| SHOWTIME | 27,561 | 27,551 | -10 | 0.0% |
| DISCOVERY EN ESPANOL | 7,351 | 7,084 | -267 | -3.6% |
| FUSE | 72,993 | 72,605 | -388 | -0.5% |
| MTV2 | 81,115 | 80,420 | -695 | -0.9% |
| LOGO | 52,216 | 51,513 | -703 | -1.3% |
| NG WILD | 57,692 | 56,808 | -884 | -1.5% |
| CENTRIC | 51,952 | 50,990 | -962 | -1.9% |
| TRU TV | 91,483 | 90,406 | -1,077 | -1.2% |
| SCIENCE | 76,928 | 75,744 | -1,184 | -1.5% |
| BRAVO | 94,395 | 93,128 | -1,267 | -1.3% |
| E! | 96,632 | 95,331 | -1,301 | -1.3% |
| BET | 91,418 | 90,101 | -1,317 | -1.4% |
| BBC-AMERICA | 80,355 | 78,932 | -1,423 | -1.8% |
| FX | 97,315 | 95,872 | -1,443 | -1.5% |
| H2 | 68,824 | 67,366 | -1,458 | -2.1% |
| ANIMAL PLANET | 96,408 | 94,819 | -1,589 | -1.6% |
| Am. Heroes / MILITARY | 62,109 | 60,502 | -1,607 | -2.6% |
| HISTORY | 98,375 | 96,710 | -1,665 | -1.7% |
| CNN / HLN | 99,458 | 97,762 | -1,696 | -1.7% |
| LIFETIME | 98,445 | 96,742 | -1,703 | -1.7% |
| CNN | 98,721 | 97,009 | -1,712 | -1.7% |
| A&E | 98,535 | 96,806 | -1,729 | -1.8% |
| FOOD NETWORK | 99,427 | 97,668 | -1,759 | -1.8% |
| TRAVEL | 94,536 | 92,704 | -1,832 | -1.9% |
| SYFY | 97,692 | 95,850 | -1,842 | -1.9% |
| SPIKE TV | 97,499 | 95,636 | -1,863 | -1.9% |
| HGTV | 98,418 | 96,494 | -1,924 | -2.0% |
| DISCOVERY | 99,090 | 97,163 | -1,927 | -1.9% |
| CMT | 91,401 | 89,452 | -1,949 | -2.1% |
| CNBC | 96,431 | 94,478 | -1,953 | -2.0% |
| OWN | 83,593 | 81,629 | -1,964 | -2.3% |
| VH1 | 96,948 | 94,939 | -2,009 | -2.1% |
| TLC | 98,072 | 96,052 | -2,020 | -2.1% |
| ESPN | 97,985 | 95,762 | -2,223 | -2.3% |
| MTV | 97,878 | 95,539 | -2,339 | -2.4% |
| DISCOVERY FIT & HEALTH | 48,989 | 46,400 | -2,589 | -5.3% |
| OUTDOOR | 39,341 | 36,587 | -2,754 | -7.0% |
| DESTINATION AMERICA | 59,903 | 57,033 | -2,870 | -4.8% |
| GAC | 63,114 | 60,192 | -2,922 | -4.6% |
| FYI | 68,342 | 65,333 | -3,009 | -4.4% |
| SMITHSONIAN | 30,811 | |||
| SUNDANCE | 57,210 | |||
| TOTAL U.S. | 114,200 | 115,800 | 1,600 | 1.4% |
Source: National Nielsen People Meter
Key Findings
Comparing July 2013 vs. July 2014:
- Nielsen now projects total wired cable at 67,379,000 homes, down 1,694,000 in the past year (-2.5%).
- Other measurement services have estimated larger decreases in wired cable.
- Satellite dish services total 38,077,000, up 2,159,000 from a year ago (+6.0%).
- Total Cable/Dish services have 103,848,000 homes, up 483,000 (+0.5%).
- The average cable network lost homes in the past year, having to do with a combination of sample adjustments and wired cable declines.
Smithsonian Channel is a Winner
- The Smithsonian Channel with 30,811,000 is added to the Nielsen service for the 1st time.
- Smithsonian is a bastion of quality, curated, entertaining nonfiction docs and specials.
- Here is coverage by Michael Rose in Huffpo of A SHOT TO SAVE THE WORLD, a bio doc about Jonas Salk and the race to develop a polio vaccine that features Bill Gates, and that I co-EP’d for Smithsonian and Steeltown Entertainment.
Terrestrial / PBS
- The total US TV Universe HH Estimate is 115.8 million homes.
- PBS is a terrestrial network and reaches approximately this footprint.
MY TAKEAWAYS Cord-cutting
- I was expecting cord-cutting to make a dent in the Cab/Sat distribution universe.
- But I have come to better appreciate the leverage that channels enjoy with operators.
- The operators are determined to lower costs as their programming margins shrink, but their overall profitability is sustained by DSL/telephone services.
- The channels are increasingly concentrated in a handful of owners, e.g. Disney, Fox, VIACOM, COMCAST, and who offer the operators a take-it-or-leave it big package of networks.
- The operators can’t drop under-performing or duplicative ‘me-too’ channels without threatening their carriage of the ‘must have’ programming services from the major content owners.
- As ever, ‘Content is King!’
Easy Days are Over
- However, the era of rapid ‘organic growth’ for channels is over and done.
- Very few channels can expect to add cable systems with lots of new viewers.
- And because it is the the distribution universe that establishes the scale of the potential viewing audience, dramatic gains in ratings are not in the cards.
- Programmers are increasingly fighting out a vicious ground game to gain a yard or two from their competitors.
NEXT: Sunnyside of the Doc Takeaways
- This year, La Rochelle served as a beautiful location for a relaxed and valuable market /conference that was very good for new business.
- Sunnyside was recently under threat when Sheffield moved to its June slot; but director Yves Jeanneau and his team brought SSD charging back with a renewed purpose that is attracting new delegations.
- Read my Takeaways in my next post!
