Are U.S. Cable Channels Heading Over a Cliff? An audience snapshot at the end of the 'Teens

Are Netflix and the streamers killing the channels’ business?

And thus are opportunities shrinking for producers at the end of the ’20-teens’?

Sample – 12 Factual Channels:

For my presentation to the upcoming New York State Bar Association annual conference, Nielsen aggregated the Primetime audience for 12 channels that focus on Factual programs.

They are:

A&E, Animal Planet, Discovery, Food, History, HGTV, ID, MTV, Nat Geo Wild, Nat Geo, Smithsonian and TLC.
Their content ranges from curated documentaries to Reality series.
The average audience of the channels varies:
- For example, HGTV and Crime-themed ID are recent ratings leaders in the Unscripted category.
- Nat Geo Wild and Smithsonian are less widely-distributed channels.

The Data

The Nielsen data tracks the average Prime ratings for all 12 channels over six months from September to March for each of the 5 years beginning in 2014-15.
The data aggregates viewers in two categories:
- People 2+, the measure of total viewing.
- And the advertiser-friendly demo of People 18-54.

Findings

The average audience for People 2+ declined from 10.8 million to 10.1 million viewers.
That’s a decline of 6% over 5 years: hardly shattering!
However, the People 18-54 demo, which is a broad measure of the health of the channels’ ad sales business, declined from 5.3 million to 4.8 million.
That’s a loss of 862,000 viewers or 16% of the audience.

What You Need To Know

The Cab / Sat channels’ audience is not falling off a cliff.
The aggregate average viewing of this sample of 12 Factual channels is about 10% of the total available TV households in the world’s richest economy.
However, it’s a mature, ageing audience, as younger viewers shift to online video platforms.
And that shift erodes the channels’ ad sales revenue stream.

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Mood Shift

The outlook inside the channels has shifted dramatically since the pre-2014 Go-Go years when they could expect year-on-year audience growth.
Those were the days when a hit series like Housewives…, Pawn Stars or Deadliest Catch could launch a channel into the Unscripted stratosphere.
Because today’s industry fundamentals point to further declines, the channels are striving to retain their historically impressive margins through rounds of cost-cutting, notably via layoffs, trimming the program acquisition pipeline, and by enforcing tougher deal terms on producers and other suppliers.
Despite the numbers and the psychology, each fully-distributed Factual channel needs hundreds of new hours each year to fill its schedule.
That’s a focus that many producers are missing in the current Streaming Boom.

Next: Cab / Sat Distribution

Cable channels peaked when they reached more than 90% of U.S. homes.
Now cord-cutters and -nevers are eroding the channels’ distribution footprints, and therefore the subscriber revenues that have been the backbone with ad sales of the Cab / Sat ‘dual revenue stream’ financial model.
Watch out for my next post covering the latest U.S. Cab / Sat Distribution snapshot from Byron Media’s John Morse.

Coming: Takeaways for Producers in the Netflix Era

He’s developing new concepts, reinventing golden oldies, and pitching non-stop to the channels and platforms, as well as landing new clients in other industries.
Get ready for my upcoming podcast on Trends at the end of the ’20-teens’ with veteran producer Michael Hoff (Hoff Productions).

Coming: Is the Pie Shrinking? More Teen-end Trends & Takeaways